I ponder the same question quite often. I’m also almost 40, have a lot of off-road fabrication experience, still have a following even though I closed up shop 10 years ago, and still have a hard time justifying quitting my job to open a new shop.
My financial metric has always been if I could open a shop and have it gross 3x my income by year two, it would be worth it. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), I’ve continued to advance in my career and salary, pushing that number higher over the years. I still think it's possible given my exposure to off-road, but there are many questions to be answered. Here is what runs through my head:
- Most importantly - Do you work to live or live to work? Running your own shop, you'll definitely be in the ladder for a few years.
- What does your current career do for you? Do you make enough money to enjoy the weekends, support your family, etc? Do you work in a field where if you took a step back for a few years to have a shop, it fails, can you get right back into it?
- What hobbies do you have? If you do anything remotely risky (ride dirt bikes, rock climbing, heavy gym work, etc.) you'll constantly be worried about getting hurt and losing business.
- Do you have an exit plan? Most fabricators, myself included, enjoy doing the work themselves which makes an exit plan difficult.
- What's your goal? Do you want to be the next Mazzulla or Morgan Clarke or Camburg? All very different goals and very different mindsets.
- Are you currently financially secure? Could you live for a year without money? How about 2 years?
- Does your wife have a lucrative, stable job with medical insurance?
- Do you have kids, a house, etc. that rely heavily on your income?
- What are you willing to sacrifice? Nights and weekends must be on the table for many years.
- What's your business plan? Think bread and butter vs. enjoyable work.
I maintain a list of possible bolt-on upper arms, kits, etc. that would be the bread and butter of the shop, with the more exotic full-builds reserved to scratch the creativity itch. For what it's worth, I almost went full kill on fab when I graduated from college. A mountain of debt really held me back, perhaps for the better given my current career path and financial standing.
For some insight, I can answer all questions above such that opening a shop sounds like the obvious conclusion, but I still have decided to keep my current job. Perhaps if the company decided I'm no longer economically viable (thanks Falling Down), I will go full in on a shop. Short of that, it's a tough sell for me personally.
I still dream of opening a shop one day. That one day just keeps getting further and further away.